Will US Still be No. 1 in 2039?

America is indisputably the hegemon today. Despite the current downturn, resulting in the fall of Lehman Brothers and General Motors, there are predictions that America will recover quickly. President Obama has declared that, "We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before" Chairman of the Institute of Policy, NUS, Tommy Koh believes the US will still be No. 1 in 2039. He mentioned in his article for Think-Tank that "It is in the American tradition to face up to problems, accept the painful medicine of reform and bounce back" I agree with this view to a large extent. 30 years is a long time, and America is bound to recover over such a long period of time. When America regains its economic superiority, its influence will greatly increase.

    America has the best education opportunities worldwide. Top universities such as Harvard, Yale, MIT and Stanford are just a few examples of world-famous universities. These first-class universities, with many resources, can attract the best brains from all over the world, thus strengthen America's position. This is evident in the university MIT; more than half of the tenured professors at MIT are foreign born. The founders of Microsoft, Apple, YouTube, and Twitter are all American born, proving that America does have the best talents. Good education attracts the top students around the world; and they can contribute to America's economy, making a country more competitive.

    Good values, and ideologies are preached, and promoted in America. The three main values that are emphasised in America are 'equality, meritocracy and opportunity'. This can be seen from the well-known phrase in the 'American dream': "life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness". With good morals and values, America will seem like a good country to live in.

    America's military prowess is very strong. It is common knowledge that America has good weapons, and defense systems. Global leaders will respect, and treat America seriously due to their military capabilities.

    America possesses a certain allure; people feel that America is something exclusive, and good. This can be seen from a recent Poll (Nation Brands Index) which showed that America was the most admired country worldwide. Many people wear American brands, listen to American music, and enjoy American food. This shows that people regard America as an important and 'great' country.

    On the other hand, will America's position be challenged by another up and coming nation China by 2039?

    During the Cultural Revolution which happened 40 years ago, students were forced to work in farms, leading to an estimated 30 million deaths. At the end of the Cultural Revolution, in the 1970s, GDP was only $315 per capita. At that time, China was very undeveloped.

    While China was very backward and undeveloped at that time, it has progressed a lot, especially over the past 30 years of reform. Statistics show that China has grown exponentially over the past 50 years. The number of people living in urban villages has increased from 10% to 50%. GDP has increased more than a 190 times, and import and export increased more than 2000 times. The life expectancy of the citizens has increased by 48 years, and the number of Olympic medals won has increased from 1 to 120.
Even China's military has become more advanced. 50 years ago, all that was available to parade were tiny tanks, mostly looted from the Japanese. Now, there are much more advanced weapons, including a cruise missile capable of hitting targets in Washington.

    Indeed, China has come a long way. It hosted the 2008 Olympics with much fanfare, wowing everyone with the brilliant display at the opening ceremony. On the other hand, Obama's bid for Chicago to be the venue for the 2016 Olympics has been turned down. In addition to that, China is the third country to send a man to the moon, not far from America.

China may triumph America economically too. China's foreign reserves are the most in the world, at $2 trillion dollars, having increased by 14000 times over the past 50 years. America had to borrow $763.5 billion dollars from China during the economic downturn. What is surprising is that the Chinese are not slowing their spending despite the downturn, retail sales in China this year are up 16%. Out of the world's 10 biggest universities, China is the only one that is growing. While America's GDP is still currently higher than that of China's, this advantage will not last long; analysts predict that in 2050, China's economy will be 1.4 times the European Union (EU), U.S, and Japan added together. China is not worse than America in many areas currently, and in 30 years time, China will be better than America in many more aspects.

While I have mentioned that America is good, with the best universities, more talent, higher popularity, it does not mean that China is, in any way inferior to America. China has its fair share of good universities too. For example, 'Beijing University', 'Fudan University', and 'Qinghua University' are some of the best known ones. These universities are attracting many top students in China and increasingly from overseas. While US may be attracting most talents today, there could be a reverse of trend where talent goes in the next 30 years. Besides students, many working adults are heading China given its enormous growth and job prospects. China has many good engineers, and Bill Gates equivalents. Software developed by China citizens is not necessarily worse than American-made ones. Take for example 'Tencent QQ' (aka QQ). It had an operating profit of $225 million in 2007, while Facebook incurred a loss of $50 million dollars.

While America's popularity is higher than China's popularity now, according to the Nation Brands Index (NBI), this may change 30 years from now. America's popularity is mainly due to Obama; we can tell this as America's popularity was only 7^th last year, when George Bush was the president. This year, when Obama is the president, America's popularity increased to be the first. Many years later, the president would change, and America's popularity may decrease. Furthermore, China's popularity has been increasing, and China may overtake America in a few years time. This year, China rose to the 22^nd position, the first time it rose in standings. I feel that this is the beginning of the trend, and China will fare better in consequent years.

    Some people may criticise China for not being democratic. Yes, China has a different political system from America, but positive improvements are being made. In 1959, there was a one-man dictatorship, and this has evolved into a collective leadership now. I hope that China will continue improving, and find the best political system to suit them.

    Critics still have another comment. "China is heavily polluted; the air pollution there is very bad! China's carbon dioxide emissions are the highest in the world!" they cry. However, while there is truth in these statements, I feel that changes are being made for the better. Premier Wen Jia Bao announced that tackling climate change was one of the four priorities for China. This is a positive signal that changes will be made for the better. Actually, even though China is the biggest emission of carbon dioxide, we cannot forget that China has a large population; if we calculate the per capita usage, it is less than one fifth than that of U.S. In spite of this, China still spends more money researching renewable energy than U.S. Additionally, the city Rizhao won the UN award for well-executed urban planning this year. In that country, every building has a solar panel, and the government spent a lot of money researching on solar and wind energy. With all these in mind, my response to the critics would be, "Actually, America fares even worse than China in terms of environmentally friendliness: the per capita usage is five times that of China, and there are still spending less money than China to research renewable energy"

    Many people, including Eurasians, are currently learning Chinese. Many people are starting to realise that China will be of paramount importance in the future, and interacting with them in the future will be inevitable. Although America may currently be better than China, China may overtake America in the years to come. China is showing sign of improvement, and it looks like China will defeat, or at least be on par with America in areas such as education, economy, popularity, internal and external defense, and environmental friendliness. The stereotypes may not be completely gone, but it seems that the dragon will have a high chance of flying above the Statue of Liberty.